I actually did the trade thing after graduating in 2005; and it’s no panacea; they’ve been increasingly regulating, and adding more hour requirements to every trade.
My experience in the massage industry caused me to quit less than 10 years after training, because it got so expensive to work, it made more sense to do retail management.
The problems that hit higher education (inflated loans, more hours, more licenses, more insurance, more business costs) have been inflating the trades as well. The problems overall need to be addressed in every industry: White Collar or Blue
Thanks! As things currently stand, and learning from my mistakes, it seems people need to choose something they’re willing to work harder and longer at, than they realize, and choose something that they have a natural aptitude for.
Going against the grain of your nature, even if it makes economic sense, will just burn you out; and doing something that feels good, even if it’s not a talent of yours, will just leave you broke.
No fluff degrees, but also no knee jerk practical decisions
“The question is whether you’re willing to swap optics for alignment”
Really hit home for me!
I feel like I’m in that pirates of the Caribbean roller coaster ride that swings on the pendulum. I’ve been hoping for it to settle but I’m recognising that the energy to shift, think creatively & realign is in the momentum.
Thanks for your words & perspective - taking a way lots to think about!
You say the white collar ladder is crumbling. It isn't, but that's a distorting comment. I think the better one is 'work is being dis-invented' before our eyes. There is no villain. It's progress, albeit being accelerated by the pandemic - what we do, where we do it and why we do it is in turmoil, and nobody knows how/when/where it will end. It's 'once AI has done all the easy stuff and changed how we learn, work, train, organize and manage our homes, work, businesses and live - what comes then, what comes next? ... it's not about a ladder crumbling, it's about much lower wall and barriers and 'no need for a ladder' in so many ways. The challenge (and maybe the largest opportunity) is how we use all the time we aren't doing the work we used to need 40-80 hours a week to do, it will be how do we sell services to 8-12 billion people who need something to do with their time and their money? ..
Right now, lots of people are losing jobs to AI. By your own statement, that is only going to increase.
Productivity gains have not translated to raises in decades. All those savings go to the top and the shareholders.
So where exactly are people going to get the money to pay for services? How can we have a consumer economy when an increasingly large portion of the population struggles to pay for groceries?
I don't quarrel with your points; I'm a small business owner, trying to manage how far I am behind, but recognizing the AI or AGI in our future is a certainty, and not wanting to take too many wrong/stupid turns on the road
I think it's highly debatable whether Generative AI will contribute to "progress" in the economy or labor market. In fact, much of the automation technology since the 1970s has facilitated the upward redistribution of wealth to the most well-off and best-educated (i.e.: tech-powered financialization, internet telecommunications, manufacturing automation). Sure, these technologies may grow GDP overall, but they don't by default create new middle-class jobs or ensure workers get a fair piece of the pie. Over the last 50 years, many middle-class, middle-skill professions have been "hollowed out", and many low-pay / low-benefit service jobs have been created in their place. We've seen a deceleration in middle-class wages, a shift of national income from labor to capital, and a decoupling of national productivity growth from wage growth.
Technology isn't all to blame, of course; the decline of unions and other factors are at play. But we should be careful not to equate technological innovation with broad-based economic progress. The fanciest new tech does not seamlessly usher in a brighter future for the typical worker, particularly if such tech rapidly automates many roles out of existence or puts downward pressure on wages.
I love this. I’ve been thinking about recently what would be a counter cultural hedge against AI, what will spiral up in demand as it shifts the economy and how I can train in one field while keeping my day job to pay the bills for now. Super timely for me :) thanks for writing this!
Love this, Carmen. Especially the reminder that “future-proofing” is just another flavor of fear dressed up as strategy. The future rewards those who are building capacity, not just credentials. Thanks for naming what so many feel but don’t say out loud.
My 19 year old is starting an aircraft maintenance program this August. She didn't want to take the traditional college path and also didn't want to accrue a ton of debt. It's very exciting to watch her do things her way!
American society said everyone should major in computer science and now those jobs are going away. Now we're saying everyone should be in the trades—but not everyone is suited for the trades. This, once again, feels short-sighted. In the United States, it always feels like we're thinking in the short term instead of the long term.
Yes, we need people in the trades, but we also need doctors. We need social workers, artists, etc. The skill sets and personal qualities of electricians and nurses don't tend to be particularly similar, at least in my experience.
We need to figure out how people can make a living in the age of AI without trying to slam round pegs into square holes.
I think this is ignoring the fact that most people can't afford to step away from their well, or decent, paying job once they have it. I would love to change careers or take an easy job for a while to think but I have a mortgage, kids and a lifestyle I could cut back on but not lose. This assumes everyone can afford to do that or has a partner in a stable high paying job to support them.
Many office jobs are at risk of automation, but we should be careful not to over-index on the hands-on trades. Many of the jobs that are forecast to grow the most over the next 8-10 years are a mix of physical jobs like Wind Turbine Technicians and office-based "knowledge" roles like Data Scientist and InfoSec Analyst. While some of the office-based roles may require an advanced post-grad degree, others may require an associate's degree or certificate.
It's not about whether someone should trade so-called white-collar work for blue-collar work (a false distinction if there ever was one) — it's more about which specific roles, regardless of educational requirements or work setting, have the most growth opportunities. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-growing.htm
Just like steel workers and factory workers were left behind in the tech age, many college graduates will need to rethink “success” to repay those student loans. Some will, some won’t. They will be left behind; again. It’s the cycle of life.
What kind of trade would make sense for someone 10 years from retirement, and a 60ish year old body? I'm already experienced with light electrical and plumbing work around my house; just not sure I could physically do it for 40+ hours a week.
My move from UX to owning a bakery felt both up and down but I’m certainly glad I went for it!
I actually did the trade thing after graduating in 2005; and it’s no panacea; they’ve been increasingly regulating, and adding more hour requirements to every trade.
My experience in the massage industry caused me to quit less than 10 years after training, because it got so expensive to work, it made more sense to do retail management.
The problems that hit higher education (inflated loans, more hours, more licenses, more insurance, more business costs) have been inflating the trades as well. The problems overall need to be addressed in every industry: White Collar or Blue
Fantastic insight
Thanks! As things currently stand, and learning from my mistakes, it seems people need to choose something they’re willing to work harder and longer at, than they realize, and choose something that they have a natural aptitude for.
Going against the grain of your nature, even if it makes economic sense, will just burn you out; and doing something that feels good, even if it’s not a talent of yours, will just leave you broke.
No fluff degrees, but also no knee jerk practical decisions
“The question is whether you’re willing to swap optics for alignment”
Really hit home for me!
I feel like I’m in that pirates of the Caribbean roller coaster ride that swings on the pendulum. I’ve been hoping for it to settle but I’m recognising that the energy to shift, think creatively & realign is in the momentum.
Thanks for your words & perspective - taking a way lots to think about!
You say the white collar ladder is crumbling. It isn't, but that's a distorting comment. I think the better one is 'work is being dis-invented' before our eyes. There is no villain. It's progress, albeit being accelerated by the pandemic - what we do, where we do it and why we do it is in turmoil, and nobody knows how/when/where it will end. It's 'once AI has done all the easy stuff and changed how we learn, work, train, organize and manage our homes, work, businesses and live - what comes then, what comes next? ... it's not about a ladder crumbling, it's about much lower wall and barriers and 'no need for a ladder' in so many ways. The challenge (and maybe the largest opportunity) is how we use all the time we aren't doing the work we used to need 40-80 hours a week to do, it will be how do we sell services to 8-12 billion people who need something to do with their time and their money? ..
Right now, lots of people are losing jobs to AI. By your own statement, that is only going to increase.
Productivity gains have not translated to raises in decades. All those savings go to the top and the shareholders.
So where exactly are people going to get the money to pay for services? How can we have a consumer economy when an increasingly large portion of the population struggles to pay for groceries?
I don't quarrel with your points; I'm a small business owner, trying to manage how far I am behind, but recognizing the AI or AGI in our future is a certainty, and not wanting to take too many wrong/stupid turns on the road
I think it's highly debatable whether Generative AI will contribute to "progress" in the economy or labor market. In fact, much of the automation technology since the 1970s has facilitated the upward redistribution of wealth to the most well-off and best-educated (i.e.: tech-powered financialization, internet telecommunications, manufacturing automation). Sure, these technologies may grow GDP overall, but they don't by default create new middle-class jobs or ensure workers get a fair piece of the pie. Over the last 50 years, many middle-class, middle-skill professions have been "hollowed out", and many low-pay / low-benefit service jobs have been created in their place. We've seen a deceleration in middle-class wages, a shift of national income from labor to capital, and a decoupling of national productivity growth from wage growth.
Technology isn't all to blame, of course; the decline of unions and other factors are at play. But we should be careful not to equate technological innovation with broad-based economic progress. The fanciest new tech does not seamlessly usher in a brighter future for the typical worker, particularly if such tech rapidly automates many roles out of existence or puts downward pressure on wages.
I love this. I’ve been thinking about recently what would be a counter cultural hedge against AI, what will spiral up in demand as it shifts the economy and how I can train in one field while keeping my day job to pay the bills for now. Super timely for me :) thanks for writing this!
Love this, Carmen. Especially the reminder that “future-proofing” is just another flavor of fear dressed up as strategy. The future rewards those who are building capacity, not just credentials. Thanks for naming what so many feel but don’t say out loud.
My 19 year old is starting an aircraft maintenance program this August. She didn't want to take the traditional college path and also didn't want to accrue a ton of debt. It's very exciting to watch her do things her way!
American society said everyone should major in computer science and now those jobs are going away. Now we're saying everyone should be in the trades—but not everyone is suited for the trades. This, once again, feels short-sighted. In the United States, it always feels like we're thinking in the short term instead of the long term.
Yes, we need people in the trades, but we also need doctors. We need social workers, artists, etc. The skill sets and personal qualities of electricians and nurses don't tend to be particularly similar, at least in my experience.
We need to figure out how people can make a living in the age of AI without trying to slam round pegs into square holes.
I think this is ignoring the fact that most people can't afford to step away from their well, or decent, paying job once they have it. I would love to change careers or take an easy job for a while to think but I have a mortgage, kids and a lifestyle I could cut back on but not lose. This assumes everyone can afford to do that or has a partner in a stable high paying job to support them.
Many office jobs are at risk of automation, but we should be careful not to over-index on the hands-on trades. Many of the jobs that are forecast to grow the most over the next 8-10 years are a mix of physical jobs like Wind Turbine Technicians and office-based "knowledge" roles like Data Scientist and InfoSec Analyst. While some of the office-based roles may require an advanced post-grad degree, others may require an associate's degree or certificate.
It's not about whether someone should trade so-called white-collar work for blue-collar work (a false distinction if there ever was one) — it's more about which specific roles, regardless of educational requirements or work setting, have the most growth opportunities. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/fastest-growing.htm
Loved this piece - spoke to my current career stage and provided much needed encouragement.
Just like steel workers and factory workers were left behind in the tech age, many college graduates will need to rethink “success” to repay those student loans. Some will, some won’t. They will be left behind; again. It’s the cycle of life.
What kind of trade would make sense for someone 10 years from retirement, and a 60ish year old body? I'm already experienced with light electrical and plumbing work around my house; just not sure I could physically do it for 40+ hours a week.
That’s the thing, it is difficult to reinvent yourself professionally when you are older